Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.612436 2.118136 2.797007 3.797251 5.272693e+00 7.435042e+00 1.097529e+01
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 1.167266 1.750668 2.681310 4.361007 7.529188e+00 1.376150e+01 2.858172e+01
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.875016 1.462944 2.548689 4.905446 1.057194e+01 2.596100e+01 8.474054e+01
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.686410 1.263904 2.483781 5.655750 1.553029e+01 5.499097e+01 3.562059e+02
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.544017 1.089354 2.388738 6.401838 2.274685e+01 1.264842e+02 2.547535e+03
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.409235 0.871378 2.076895 6.344534 2.825796e+01 2.496105e+02 2.984374e+04
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.307395 0.686583 1.749499 5.963361 3.256856e+01 4.685276e+02 2.568267e+06
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.250538 0.590000 1.622106 6.297602 4.470183e+01 1.374134e+03 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.217470 0.542726 1.626026 7.369088 7.381217e+01 8.749126e+03 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.194179 0.513549 1.681432 9.023241 1.382815e+02 2.927537e+05 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.167226 0.461690 1.617495 9.941872 2.243897e+02 1.901617e+10 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.139437 0.395940 1.451252 9.800613 2.978759e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.113806 0.330546 1.257062 9.187579 3.663996e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.100233 0.302406 1.225044 10.303288 7.061543e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.088289 0.275478 1.181512 11.346025 1.415709e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.079187 0.255808 1.165202 12.950286 3.583765e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.071032 0.236652 1.138399 14.532975 1.037680e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.061233 0.206997 1.022101 13.973899 1.763517e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.052329 0.178296 0.893001 12.681042 2.280424e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.046941 0.163129 0.846981 13.266099 7.094153e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.043784 0.156719 0.859437 15.714390 1.207526e+06 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.041522 0.153579 0.896024 19.702350 NaN NaN NaN
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 0.038261 0.144478 0.877194 21.840732 NaN NaN NaN